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Edge-Based Betting

Value Bets

Matches where our Poisson model's probability exceeds what the bookmaker's odds imply. Filter by market, minimum edge, and league to find the best expected value opportunities across 1X2, BTTS, over/under goals, and corners.

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200 value bets found
Market
Pick
Odds
Edge
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England - Premier League
14:00
Manchester United
Manchester United
Fulham
Fulham
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.23
+27.2%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.80
+26.4%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.97
+25.3%
BTTS
Yes
1.67
+2.1%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.20
+1.7%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.57
+0.3%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.30
+0.1%
14:00
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Brentford
Brentford
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.80
+1.4%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.25
+1.0%
14:00
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.80
+1.4%
16:30
Tottenham
Tottenham
Manchester City
Manchester City
O/U 2.5
U2.5
2.20
+9.5%
O/U 3.5
U3.5
1.50
+9.3%
HT O/U 1.5
U1.5
1.53
+4.6%
🇫🇷France - Ligue 1
16:15
Angers
Angers
Metz
Metz
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.75
+34.3%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.10
+31.4%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
3.00
+23.7%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.33
+16.8%
BTTS
Yes
1.80
+16.4%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.40
+13.6%
16:15
Toulouse
Toulouse
Auxerre
Auxerre
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.20
+12.5%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.40
+9.6%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.44
+5.6%
16:15
Nice
Nice
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.36
+37.6%
Corners 7.5
U7.5
3.17
+36.5%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.86
+34.2%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.52
+28.2%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.80
+10.4%
BTTS
Yes
1.62
+6.3%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.25
+6.0%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.33
+3.8%
19:45
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
BTTS
Yes
1.62
+4.3%
🇩🇪Germany - Bundesliga
14:30
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.50
+12.0%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.62
+11.3%
BTTS
Yes
1.62
+9.3%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.20
+6.7%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.25
+6.6%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.28
+3.9%
16:30
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
BTTS
Yes
1.91
+2.6%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.14
+0.3%
🇮🇹Italy - Serie A
11:30
Torino
Torino
Lecce
Lecce
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.50
+6.3%
BTTS
Yes
2.10
+4.4%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.53
+2.6%
14:00
Como
Como
Atalanta
Atalanta
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.91
+11.6%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.28
+6.9%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.40
+5.6%
BTTS
Yes
1.70
+1.2%
17:00
Cremonese
Cremonese
Inter
Inter
O/U 3.5
U3.5
1.50
+4.3%
19:45
Parma
Parma
Juventus
Juventus
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.80
+6.4%
O/U 3.5
U3.5
1.30
+5.1%
HT O/U 1.5
U1.5
1.40
+2.6%
BTTS
No
1.67
+1.1%
🇪🇸Spain - La Liga
13:00
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.20
+8.5%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.10
+5.4%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.44
+4.6%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.14
+2.3%
BTTS
Yes
1.95
+1.7%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.22
+1.0%
15:15
Real Betis
Real Betis
Valencia
Valencia
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.91
+12.6%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.28
+6.9%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.36
+4.5%
BTTS
Yes
1.75
+1.9%
17:30
Getafe
Getafe
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.67
+6.1%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.67
+3.1%
1X2
Celta Vigo
2.80
+1.3%
🇦🇷Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina
01:00
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
Platense
Platense
Corners 10.5
O10.5
3.24
+49.1%
Corners 9.5
O9.5
2.42
+41.7%
Corners 8.5
O8.5
1.89
+33.1%
Corners 7.5
O7.5
1.51
+20.8%
🇧🇪Belgium - First Amateur Division
13:30
Union Namur
Union Namur
Rochefort
Rochefort
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.70
+23.2%
13:30
Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
Standard Liège II
Standard Liège II
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.75
+21.9%
14:00
Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
Crossing Schaerbeek
Crossing Schaerbeek
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.75
+24.9%
🇧🇪Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
15:00
Dender
Dender
Genk
Genk
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.18
+25.1%
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.93
+23.9%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.72
+22.9%
18:15
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.10
+22.4%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.75
+21.6%
🇧🇪Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
17:30
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.95
+22.7%
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.25
+22.2%
🇧🇷Brazil - Paranaense - 1
21:30
Aruko Sports
Aruko Sports
Maringá
Maringá
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.25
+22.2%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.90
+21.4%
BTTS
Yes
2.00
+21.0%
🇧🇷Brazil - Paraense
13:00
Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
Águia de Marabá
BTTS
No
1.72
+20.9%
🇸🇻El Salvador - Primera Division
01:00
FAS
FAS
Águila
Águila
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.85
+31.9%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.79
+30.2%
BTTS
Yes
1.72
+22.9%
01:15
Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
Zacatecoluca
Zacatecoluca
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.20
+36.5%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
3.04
+27.1%
BTTS
Yes
2.03
+24.7%
21:15
Platense
Platense
Alianza
Alianza
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.75
+34.9%
BTTS
No
1.85
+31.9%
HT O/U 0.5
U0.5
2.63
+26.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England - FA WSL
11:55
West Ham W
West Ham W
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.00
+52.7%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.62
+45.8%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.85
+36.9%
BTTS
Yes
1.67
+28.1%
HT O/U 0.5
O0.5
1.36
+22.5%
11:55
Everton W
Everton W
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.75
+43.6%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.62
+34.8%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.80
+34.4%
BTTS
Yes
1.67
+25.1%
11:55
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
Liverpool W
Liverpool W
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.38
+30.0%
BTTS
Yes
1.80
+26.4%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.57
+22.3%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.25
+21.6%
14:30
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
Chelsea W
Chelsea W
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.00
+42.7%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
1.85
+33.9%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
2.62
+30.8%
Corners 10.5
O10.5
2.16
+28.7%
Corners 9.5
O9.5
1.73
+25.2%
BTTS
Yes
1.67
+21.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England - FA WSL
11:55
Brighton W
Brighton W
London City Lionesses
London City Lionesses
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.64
+38.1%
Corners 7.5
U7.5
3.82
+37.8%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.02
+35.5%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.63
+30.7%
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.50
+25.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England - Premier League 2 Division One
12:30
Leeds United U21
Leeds United U21
Arsenal U21
Arsenal U21
BTTS
No
3.23
+36.0%
🇬🇹Guatemala - Liga Nacional
01:00
Xelajú
Xelajú
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.25
+21.6%
🇭🇳Honduras - Liga Nacional
01:30
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
Juticalpa
Juticalpa
BTTS
No
1.85
+28.9%
🇭🇰Hong Kong - Premier League
07:00
Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
Hong Kong FC
Hong Kong FC
BTTS
Yes
1.91
+33.6%
🇮🇹Italy - Serie A Women
11:30
Lazio W
Lazio W
Como W
Como W
BTTS
No
1.73
+26.2%
🇲🇽Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX
01:00
Monarcas
Monarcas
Cancún
Cancún
BTTS
No
1.89
+30.1%
🇲🇽Mexico - Liga MX
01:00
Monterrey
Monterrey
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.39
+25.2%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.88
+24.8%
Corners 7.5
U7.5
3.20
+21.8%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.53
+21.6%
01:10
Leon
Leon
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.00
+23.0%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.60
+21.5%
🇲🇽Mexico - Liga Premier Serie A
01:00
Racing de Veracruz
Racing de Veracruz
Tapachula
Tapachula
BTTS
Yes
1.97
+30.2%
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.07
+21.7%
01:00
Reboceros La Piedad
Reboceros La Piedad
Los Cabos United
Los Cabos United
O/U 2.5
U2.5
2.15
+23.5%
🇳🇱Netherlands - Eredivisie
11:15
Excelsior
Excelsior
Ajax
Ajax
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.93
+25.2%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.46
+24.3%
O/U 3.5
O3.5
2.25
+22.6%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.56
+21.9%
13:30
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Feyenoord
Corners 10.5
O10.5
2.03
+30.7%
Corners 9.5
O9.5
1.65
+24.4%
19:00
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.23
+28.2%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.97
+26.3%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.79
+26.1%
🇵🇱Poland - Ekstraklasa
11:15
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
Corners 7.5
U7.5
4.00
+75.0%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
3.00
+66.7%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.25
+55.6%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.80
+44.4%
🇵🇹Portugal - Segunda Liga
11:00
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Oliveirense
Oliveirense
O/U 1.5
U1.5
3.50
+43.4%
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.90
+38.4%
BTTS
No
1.91
+31.6%
HT O/U 0.5
U0.5
3.00
+29.7%
O/U 3.5
U3.5
1.33
+22.8%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia - Pro League
17:30
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Najma
Al Najma
O/U 2.5
U2.5
3.25
+30.2%
O/U 3.5
U3.5
1.91
+28.6%
🇪🇸Spain - Segunda División
15:15
Eibar
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.40
+25.3%
🇪🇸Spain - Primera División Femenina
11:00
FC Levante Badalona
FC Levante Badalona
Eibar W
Eibar W
BTTS
No
1.57
+21.3%
🇪🇸Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1
11:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.62
+23.8%
🇪🇸Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
11:00
Llanera
Llanera
Lenense
Lenense
BTTS
Yes
2.29
+29.3%
🇪🇸Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 6
15:00
RC Catarroja
RC Catarroja
Castellonense
Castellonense
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.67
+21.1%
🇪🇸Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
10:30
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
Galapagar
Galapagar
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.08
+22.9%
🇪🇸Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
11:00
Albacete II
Albacete II
Tarancón
Tarancón
BTTS
No
1.84
+24.7%
🇪🇸Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
11:00
Espanyol II
Espanyol II
Andratx
Andratx
BTTS
No
1.65
+23.4%
🇪🇸Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
11:00
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.90
+28.4%
11:00
Elche II
Elche II
Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.35
+28.4%
11:00
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
Conquense
Conquense
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.50
+24.0%
🇹🇭Thailand - Thai League 1
11:00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
BTTS
No
1.83
+28.4%
11:30
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.95
+31.7%
O/U 1.5
U1.5
3.75
+30.3%
BTTS
No
1.91
+23.6%
🇹🇭Thailand - Thai League 2
11:30
Police Tero
Police Tero
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
BTTS
No
2.00
+36.0%
O/U 2.5
U2.5
1.80
+25.4%
🇹🇷Turkey - 1. Lig
10:30
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
Van BB
Van BB
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.40
+31.3%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.84
+29.7%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.49
+23.9%
16:00
Amed
Amed
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
Corners 7.5
U7.5
3.90
+49.4%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
2.75
+48.6%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
2.10
+44.4%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.70
+37.2%
🇺🇸USA - USL Super League
00:30
Tampa Bay Sun W
Tampa Bay Sun W
Spokane Zephyr W
Spokane Zephyr W
O/U 3.5
O3.5
3.85
+40.0%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.12
+34.8%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
3.04
+29.1%
🇻🇪Venezuela - Primera División
21:00
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.43
+58.8%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.86
+46.2%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.50
+33.3%
23:00
UCV
UCV
Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.48
+59.7%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.90
+47.4%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.53
+34.6%
Corners 10.5
U10.5
1.27
+21.3%
🇻🇳Vietnam - V.League 1
10:00
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Da Nang
Da Nang
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.30
+45.5%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.77
+38.5%
O/U 2.5
O2.5
2.62
+34.8%
O/U 3.5
O3.5
5.00
+33.0%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.44
+28.6%
BTTS
Yes
2.50
+27.0%
O/U 1.5
O1.5
1.53
+24.6%
HT O/U 1.5
O1.5
3.75
+24.3%
11:00
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.41
+58.5%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.85
+45.9%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.49
+32.9%
🇻🇳Vietnam - V.League 2
09:00
Văn Hiến
Văn Hiến
Hồ Chí Minh II
Hồ Chí Minh II
Corners 7.5
U7.5
2.08
+51.9%
Corners 8.5
U8.5
1.64
+39.0%
Corners 9.5
U9.5
1.34
+25.4%
🌍World - Friendlies Clubs
11:00
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Laagri
Laagri
BTTS
No
3.00
+26.7%
O/U 2.5
U2.5
3.40
+24.6%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet occurs when our calculated probability is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply. The "edge" shows the difference: +10% means we think there's a 10 percentage point higher chance of winning than the odds suggest.

About Value Bets

What is a value bet?

A value bet is a wager where the probability of an outcome occurring is greater than what the bookmaker's odds suggest. When you consistently bet on outcomes with positive expected value, you can profit long-term regardless of individual results. Value betting is the foundation of professional sports betting strategy.

How is edge calculated?

Edge is calculated by comparing our statistical probability prediction to the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds. For example, if we predict a 60% chance of an outcome but the odds imply only 50%, the edge is +10%. Higher edge indicates more potential value, but also consider that higher edges may reflect more uncertain predictions.

What markets are analyzed?

We analyze value across multiple betting markets including Match Winner (1X2), Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under goals (1.5, 2.5, 3.5), Half-time goals, Double Chance, and Total Corners. Each market is independently evaluated using Poisson-based statistical models and historical team performance data.

How should I use this?

Use the edge as one factor in your betting decisions, not the only factor. Consider the sample size (how many games the predictions are based on), recent team news, injuries, and motivation. Value betting works best over large sample sizes - individual bets can still lose even with positive edge.

Where does the data come from?

Probabilities are generated from Poisson regression models trained on match results from 1200+ leagues worldwide. Team attacking and defensive strength parameters are updated after each matchday. Odds are sourced from major bookmakers and refreshed multiple times daily, so edge values reflect current market prices rather than stale lines.

Related: Match Predictions · Bet of the Day · Today's Fixtures